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🎯 Title: "Liquidity Surge & Global Debt Rollovers — What This Means for Crypto"

Key Takeaways:

• Macro expert Raoul Pal explains how we’re entering the “autumnal season” of the financial cycle — and why that could supercharge global liquidity.

• Crypto markets could benefit significantly if liquidity expands as expected.

• A new round of behind-the-scenes negotiations with China may resemble the 2017 Shanghai Accord — potentially sparking the next global growth cycle.

• Global liquidity, not just the Fed, remains the dominant driver for crypto’s macro outlook.

💧 Enter Raoul Pal: Liquidity, Debt, and Macro Tailwinds for Crypto

According to macro investor Raoul Pal, we are now in what he calls the "autumnal season" of the financial cycle. That’s when large-scale debt rollovers occur — in this case, over $10 trillion in global debt that needs refinancing in 2025.

To absorb this, the system needs a major injection of liquidity. Historically, when liquidity expands, risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum thrive.

Raoul believes 2025 could echo 2020 — not because of a pandemic, but due to the structural need to keep financial markets functioning. This could lead to a massive expansion of money supply (Global M2) and other liquidity proxies.

🌍 Why Global Liquidity > Fed Policy

Pal emphasizes that global liquidity is more important than what the U.S. Fed is doing. About 50% of all global debt is denominated in USD, so countries like China and others need access to dollars.

China, currently facing deflation and a weak RMB, may enter into a backdoor agreement with the U.S. to stabilize the dollar. Raoul suggests this could be the next version of the "Shanghai Accord", dubbing it the "Mar-a-Lago Accord."

A weaker dollar allows:

• Capital to flow back into emerging markets

• Better terms for rolling dollar-denominated debt

• A boost in global trade, even with tariffs

And crucially: a more favorable environment for crypto.

📉 Dollar Weakness = Crypto Strength?

As the dollar weakens and global liquidity expands, crypto could rally hard. That’s because Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other digital assets often move inversely to the dollar and directly with liquidity.

The head-and-shoulders top in the Chinese yuan vs. the yen suggests that currency pressures are building — and a reset in FX could serve as the trigger for broader market realignment.

📺 Catch the Full Breakdown on YouTube! We’ve launched our YouTube channel with a full 2-minute macro explainer of this exact topic.

Bottom Line: Raoul Pal believes that global liquidity is about to expand, and that could be one of the most powerful forces behind the next big crypto move later in 2025.

Stay tuned — and now, watch along with us on YouTube!

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Sources:

• Raoul Pal, Real Vision / GMI

• Global Macro Investor analysis

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