Monday Market Breakdown – Aug 11, 2025

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This past week was a slow burn, but it set the stage for something bigger. Let me walk you through what happened and why it matters going into this week.

1. Bitcoin’s range game
BTC hovered between $115K–$117K all week. That’s not boring—it’s coiling. Every rejection near $120K builds more pressure. If we break it, momentum could explode. If not, we stay chopping until macro shakes things up.

2. Ethereum waking up
ETH climbed back toward $3.8K–$4K for the first time since December. Spot ETF inflows and healthy staking are pushing it higher. A clean close above $4K could flip sentiment hard in ETH’s favor.

3. Linea’s anticipation
Linea’s zkEVM is running hot with real usage, gasless infra, and MetaMask-native flow. But the TGE keeps getting delayed. That’s risky—patience runs thin. If the launch hits right, it could be the fresh zk narrative we need.

4. Macro backdrop
The Fed’s hinting at a possible September rate cut. Inflation is cooling but not dead. That’s a sweet spot for risk-on assets—if the macro picture doesn’t throw a surprise punch this week.

5. Regulation turning friendly
The US is moving toward a more pro-crypto stance—retirement funds opening to crypto, regulatory roadblocks easing. If that momentum continues, the next big inflow of institutional money could start here.

6. Institutional demand rising
Bitcoin ETF inflows keep growing. BlackRock and Fidelity aren’t aping, they’re accumulating. That tells me the long-term bet is still in play, even if short-term price action is flat.

7. IPO hype
Big crypto players are going public—Bullish, Galaxy, Circle. Public market listings give mainstream investors exposure without touching tokens directly, which could funnel more attention and liquidity into the ecosystem.

8. Treasury plays plateauing
Galaxy’s Mike Novogratz says the corporate BTC treasury trend may have peaked. That’s fine—those positions are still locked in, and new entrants will be more strategic rather than chasing hype.

9. Meme coins getting attention
Whales are quietly scooping DOGE, SHIB, BONK, and some newer names. They don’t do that without expecting liquidity events or community-driven rallies. I’m keeping a close eye there.

10. Risk of “crypto as a lifeline”
Some struggling companies are buying BTC to prop up their share prices. That’s not sustainable, and if those bets go south, it could create shockwaves. We’ll need to watch for signs of forced selling.

The importance for this week:
We’re heading into Monday with BTC coiled under resistance, ETH on the edge of a breakout, Linea building quiet anticipation, and macro leaning risk-on. If equities stay strong and no negative surprises hit, we could see a push toward new local highs this week. But if macro cracks or Linea’s TGE disappoints, volatility will spike.

I’m staying nimble, stacking conviction plays, and ready for quick rotations.

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